Development Projections for 2010-2013

The Development prospects for the planned period provide the framework for implementation arrangements. It assesses the adequacy of the existing number of facilities/services based on the GSGDA projections and indicators under the seven thematic areas. Projections for the plan period 
(2010-2013) have been highlighted on the ensuing sections.

Population Projections

Population is an integral variable in all the planning endeavours. This is because it is both a consequence and determinant of development. Human resources and needs vary according to the size, composition and distribution of the population. It is for these reasons that the population projections for the planned period have been made to facilitate the calculation of services and facilities needed for the period. Using a growth rate of 2.1% (2000 PHC) and the 2000 base year’s population of 79,809 people the arithmetic and geometric models were applied in estimating the populations for the planned period.

The model used was based on the following assumptions:

•    Population growth rate will remain constant
•    Net migration will be zero
•    Fertility will remain unchanged
•    The age-sex structure will remain the same over the planned period

Estimated Population for the District

Year        Male      Female    Total
2010    59,895    58,897    118,792
2011    61,166    60,146    121,312
2012    62,464    61,423    123,887
2013    63,789    62,726    126,515

Estimated Population by Age and Sex

Cohorts    2010 Male     Female     Total 
0-5                    7,056    6,938       13,994
6-10                  7,204    7,085       14,289
11-15                5,934    5,836       11,770
16-20                6,953    6,838       13,791
21-25                4,383    4,309         8,692
26-30                4,273    4,201         8,474
31-35                2,532    2,490         5,022
36-40                2,603    2,559         5,162
41-45                1,772    1,742        19,514
46-50                1,537    1,510         3,047
51-55                  682       671         1,353
56-60               1,050     1,033        2,083
61-65                 557        547         1,104
66-70                 627        617         1,244

Cohorts    2011          Male     Female     Total 
0-5                           8,704    8,559    17,263
6-10                         8,887    8,740    17,627
11-15                       7,320    7,199    14,519
16-20                       8,577    8,435    17,012
21-25                       5,407    5,315    10,722
26-30                       5,271    5,182    10,453
31-35                       3,123    3,071    6,194
36-40                       3,211    3,156    6,367
41-45                       2,186    2,149    4,335
46-50                       1,896    1,862    3,758
51-55                          841       827    1,668
56-60                       1,295    1,274    2,569
61-65                          687       674    1,361
66-70                          773    761       1,534
71-75                          444    437          881
76-80                          531    523       1,054
81-85                          193    189          382
86-90                          251    246          497
91+                             289    284          573

Cohorts    2012                Male     Female     Total 
0-5                           9,078    8,926    18,004
6-10                         9,268    9,115    18,383
11-15                       7,634    7,508    15,142
16-20                       8,945    8,797    17,742
21-25                       5,639    5,543    11,182
26-30                       5,497    5,404    10,901
31-35                       3,257    3,203    6,460
36-40                       3,349    3,292    6,641
41-45                       2,279    2,241    4,520
46-50                       1,977    1,942    3,919
51-55                          877       863    1,740
56-60                       1,350    1,329    2,679
61-65                           716     703    1,419
66-70                            806    793    1,599
71-75                            463    456    919
76-80                            554    545    1,099
81-85                            201    198    399
86-90                            262    257    519
91+                               302    297    599
       

Cohorts    2013                    Male     Female     Total

0-5                               9,270    9,115    18,385
6-10                             9,465    9,308    18,773
11-15                           7,796    7,667    15,463
16-20                           9,135    8,984    18,119
21-25                           5,758    5,661    11,419
26-30                           5,614    5,519    11,133
31-35                           3,326    3,271    6,597
36-40                           3,420    3,362    6,782
41-45                           2,328    2,288    4,616
46-50                           2,019    1,983    4,002
51-55                              896    881       1,777
56-60                           1,379    1,357    2,736
61-65                             731       718     1,449
66-70                              823     810     1,633
71-75                              473    466         939
76-80                              566    557       1,123
81-85                              206    202         408
86-90                              268    262         530
91+                                 308    303         611

Educational Projections 
Demand for Teachers

The national standard for pupil –teacher ratio for KG, Primary, JHS and SHS is 1:25, 1:33, 1:25 and 1:30 respectively. The demand for teachers for the planned period is therefore as follows: (Assumption: 2010-2013 Primary Enrollments; 16,000; 18,000; 20,000; 22,000: 2010-2013 JHS Enrollments; 2,600; 2,800; 3,000; 3,200)

Demand for Boreholes (2010-2013)

Year    Population    Existing Potable Water Points    Required    Backlog
2010    118,792        237                396        159
2011    121,312        396                404        8
2012    123,887        404                413        9
2013    126,515        413                422        9

Health projections 
Demand for Doctors

By the planning standards, the doctor/patient ratio should be 1:10,000 for quality health care to be realized. With the non availability of medical doctor in the district, it therefore means that the doctor-patient ratio for the plan period (2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013) will be 0: 118,792, 0: 121,312, 0: 123,887 and 0: 126,515 respectively.  There is therefore the need for concerted efforts to attract and retain more doctors into the District.  The table below shows the projected demand for doctors in the planned period.

Projected Demand for Doctors (2006-2009)

Year    Population    Existing    Required    Backlog
2010    118,792        0        12        12
2011    121,312        0        12        12
2012    123,887        0        12        12
2013    126,515        0        13        13
  
Demand for Nurses

With a planning standard of one nurse to 5,000 people the projected demand for nurses for the planned period is presented at the table below in the table below 

Table 3.6: Projected Demand for Nurses 

Year    Population    Existing    Required    Backlog
2010    118,792        20        24              4
2011    121,312        24        24              0
2012    123,887        24        25              1
2013    126,515        25        25              0

Demand for Health Facilities 

Using a population threshold of 20,000 people to a Health Centre, the table below shows the projected demand for various health facilities in the District over the medium term.

Table 3.7: Projected Demand for Health Facilities   

Year             District Hospital                                  Health Centre

Existing     Required     Backlog      Existing     Required     Backlog 
2010     0           1              1                    9        -                 -
2011     0           1              1                    9        -                _
2012     0           1              1                    9        -                 -
2013     0           1              1                    9        -                 -

Objectives and Strategies in Relation to the GSGDA 2010-2013

In order to actualize the development goal for the District, specific objectives are formulated under the seven pillars of the GSGDA and appropriate strategies designed to serve as link between the goal and the activities to be implemented.  The table below shows the objectives and strategies for the medium term period;

Objectives and Strategies
GSGDA Thematic Area 

Ensuring and Sustaining Macroeconomic Stability 

Objectives 

To increase the internally generated revenue from 1% to 5% of the total revenue.

Improve the District expenditure management by 2013

Strategies 

Training programme for revenue collectors 
Develop data-base for ratable items
Development of market infrastructure 
Ensure transparency in the use of public funds

Infrastructure and Human Settlement Development
Objectives 

To improve road network by 2013 
To increase the potable water coverage from the current level of 37.90% 70% by 2013
To increase the sanitation coverage from 3.35% to 20% by the year 2013 
To increase the electricity coverage by 2013
To increase both residential and office accommodation by 2013
To improve the transportation situation of the Decentralized Departments
To increase the infrastructure of the schools in the district
To increase the coverage health facilities by 2013
To increase residential accommodation  for health workers 

Strategies

Rehabilitation of feeder roads
Construct new feeder roads
Provision of small town water system
Drill of boreholes
Promote the Construction of household latrines
Logistical support to the District EHU
Procurement of low tension poles
Construct staff bungalows
Construct office accommodation 
Procurement of motorbikes
Procurement of pick-ups 
Construct and renovation of schools
Construct health infrastructure 
Construct residential accommodation

Objectives and Strategies

GSGDA Thematic Area 
Accelerated Agriculture Modernization Natural Resource Management

Objectives 

To reduce the Extension officer- farmer ratio from the current 1:5140 to 1:2000 by the year 2013
To reduce post harvest losses from 15%  to 6%  by 2013
To increase the land under irrigation from 0.01% to 5% by the year 2013
To improve tractor to farmer ratio from 1:5640 to 1:2800 by 2013
To increase the awareness of the dangers of bush burning 
To increase productivity of farmers/businessmen by the year  2013
To facilitate access to micro credit to small scale industries by 2013

Strategies 

Recruitment of Extension Officers
Training of Extension officers 
Provision of modern storage facilities
Promotion of value addition to the farm produce
Construct irrigation dams
Provision of irrigation equipment
Procurement of tractors
Promote afforestation programme
Formation of anti bush fire volunteers
Formation of business associations
Linking businessmen to micro credit institutions

Objectives and Strategies

GSGDA Thematic Area 
Human Development, Employment and Productivity

Objectives 

To  reduce the  of HIV/AIDs  prevalence rate by 2013 
To improve maternal and child health care by 2013
To facilitate the establishment of ICT Centres
 To increase the household consumption of iodated salt from 12.8% to 60% by 2013
To reduce the incidence of malaria by 2013
To reduce the nurse –patient  ratio by 2013
To increase the ambulance  services in the district

Strategies 

Carry out sensitization programme
Integrate the HIV/AIDs into the activities of the DA
Improving access to antenatal care ANC) service to ensure favourable birth outcomes for mother and child and reduce child and maternal mortality
Lobby for ICT centre for the district
Organize sensitization campaigns at market places to encourage the consumption of iodated salt
Promote the use of insecticide treated mosquito nets
Sponsor student nurses
Lobby for the posting of nurses to the district
Lobby for ambulance facility for the district

GSGDA Thematic Area 
Human Development, Employment and Productivity 

Objectives 

To increase skilled delivery from 20% to 70% by 2013
To increase vitamin A coverage from 52% to 90% by 2013

To promote exclusive breastfeeding by 2013

To increase gross enrollment of girls from 60.70% to 98% by 2013

To increase the number trained teachers in the district

Promote the establishment of vocational and technical institute by 2013
Facilitate the establishment of motivation packages for hard working teachers
To increase the capacity of PTA/SMCs

Strategies 

Provision of health infrastructure 
Provide support for the immunizations 
Intensify campaigns for exclusive breastfeeding
Provide incentive packages for the girl-education
Support the teachers trainers 
Lobby for vocational school in the district
Institute annual awards for hard working teachers
Carry out training programmes for the PTA/SMCs

GSGDA Thematic Area 
Transparent and Accountable Governance

Objectives 

To enhance the performance of sub district structures by 2013
To increase the representation of vulnerable and the excluded in the decision making
To increase dialogue among the traditional authorities 

Strategies 

Facilitate the recruiting of ACs Staff
Renovate the ACs Offices
Give priority to the vulnerable and excluded in leadership positions
Capacity building programmes for traditional authorities

Enhanced Competitiveness of Ghana’s Private Sector
Objectives 

To facilitate access to micro credit by businessmen
To increase the number of business associations in the District
To promote income generating opportunities for the poor and vulnerable by 2013
To reduced feminized poverty by 2013
To increase the number of financial institutions in the district
To increase the number of business associations

Strategies

Linking businessmen to micro credit institutions
Support the formation of cooperatives
Encourage micro-finance institutions to develop flexible packages to
meet women’s needs and constraints
Promote the economic empowerment of women through access to land, labour, credit.
Promote the political empowerment of women through decision-making at the household,community and in public life.
Lobby for financial institutions to open up branches in the District.
Encourage artisans and other professionals including fitters and mechanics, carpenters and electricians, hairdressers and beauticians to form strong district associations.

Development Problems

Summary of Key Development Problems, Issues and Gaps Identified from Performance Review Situational Analysis.

The following gaps/development problems were ascertained from an analysis of the current situation of the District and these will form the basis for development intervention over the medium term period:

Priorities for Private Sector Competitiveness 

High Extension officer –Farmer Ratio
High post harvest losses
Poor road network
Over reliance on rain-fed agriculture
High farmer tractor ratio
Persistent bush burning in the District.
Weak institutional support to farmers
Low farmer managerial and entrepreneurial skills
Inadequate credit facilities for farmers/businessmen in the district
High cost of farm inputs
Low coverage of electricity

Human Resource Development

Inadequate residential accommodation for health staff
Low coverage of health facilities in the district
Inadequate technical staff for health care delivery
Inadequate supply of essential drugs to the clinics
No medical doctor in the district
Poor  road network making health care delivery difficult
Absence of an ambulance for the health care delivery
Low coverage of potable water provision in the District
Low sanitation coverage in the District
Low level of gross enrollment of pupils, especially girls, in basic schools. 
Poor and inadequate school infrastructure 
Dormant PTAs and SMCs 
Low coverage of sanitary facilities in the schools
Inadequate trained teachers 
Inadequate teaching& learning materials 
Inadequate  incentives and motivation for teachers 

Absence of   vocational & technical institute in the District

Civic Responsibility 
   
Non functioning sub district structures
Low participation of  women in local governance
Low  internally generated revenue 
Inadequate residential  accommodation for District Staff
Persistent ethnic conflicts
Lack of adequate security points in the communities
Inadequate office accommodation for central administration and decentralised departments
Inadequate means of transport for decentralised departments