Development Projections

Population Projection

Population Projection is a very vital input in development planning process. It is the population needs that this whole plan seeks to address. To this effect, it is necessary to know the size of the human population at each point in time so as to be able to determine in corresponding numbers and levels of social, economic and infrastructure needs required.

It is in the height of this that the population of the district has been projected from 2006 to 2009 for the purposes of preparing medium term plan for the district. In projecting the population the Arithmetic method of projection was used (i.e.)

pt = po  (I + r)t

Where;    pt is population at a future date
         po is population at the base year (2006)
         r   is growth rate in population (2.5)
         t   is time interval between pt and po (2006 – 2009)

Assumptions underlying the population projection

1. That the mortality and morbidity rate will remain the same with the plan periods.
2. That net migration would be insignificant within the plan period.

It is seen that the current population of 58640 in Tano South Municipal would increase to 64,504 by 2009 at it growth rate of 2.5%. This calls for a related increment in the number and improve levels of social, economic and infrastructure for the district.Pupils enrolment at pre-school level grows at an average rate of 5%.  Teacher’s population at pre-school level grows at an average rate of 17%.Pupils population increased by 16.6% from 2004/2005 to 2005/2006 (i.e. 8,849 – 10,319) due to the introduction of the capitation grant.  Pupils population from then is growing at 3.5% annually.

Teacher population at primary level is increasing at a rate of 9.6%.

Enrolment from 2004/2005 to 2005/2006 increased by 17.5% from 2,834 to 3,331 due greatly to the introduction of the capitation grant.  Enrolment of the subsequent years expected to grow by 8.5% annually. Teacher population at JSS level will also be expected to increase by 11.6%.Since enrolment at the pre-school level for the year 2006/2007 – 2009/2010 is supposed to grow 5% annually, number of classrooms needed should be increased by 5% each year.Enrolment at the primary level is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3.5% from 2006/2007 academic year to 2009/2010.  Therefore the number of classrooms should also be increased by 3.5% for this period.

From 2006 – 2010 academic years enrolment at the JSS level is expected to raise by 8.5% annually.  Therefore the number of classrooms should also be raised by 8.5% to match the increase in students population.

Monitoring & Evaluation

The purpose of monitoring is to identify immediate problems or deviations from the established plan and find quick practical solutions. Monitoring is based on a comparison between established terms or standards and actual performance.

Monitoring at the District will take the following form:

1. Technical   – To monitor the efficient utilisation of inputs to ensure that inputs do not lie waste.
2.  Administration – To ascertain whether the necessary inputs for project are being provided or whether the staff needed for a projects are being recruited as scheduled.
3. Achievement   -  To measure the out put and effects or impact of a the projects on its beneficiaries 

Monitoring of the projects will formally begin when the actual implementation of the projects start the monitoring will therefore ensure that the projects are progressing according to the timetable, that the quality of work is up to standard, and that all inputs, including labour, are on site at the appropriate time, including the right quantities and of the right quality.

The monitoring will afford the implementers the opportunity to keep track of the objectives of the plan and outputs by making references to stated objectively verifiable indicators (OVI) and mean of verification (MOV). For the purposes of monitoring and evaluation, it is necessary to state all important assumptions underlying project objectives and outputs.

The Evaluation Process

Evaluation of the implementation of the District’s 4-Year Medium Term Development Plan is a more comprehensive form of assessment than regular monitoring. Evaluation is a systematic way of learning from experience and using the lessons learned to improve upon current activities and promote better plans by the careful selection of alternatives for future action. This involves analysis of the different phases of the plan, its relevance, formulation, efficiency and effectiveness, and the extent of its acceptance by all parties involved. It renders possible the reallocation of priorities and resources on the basis of changing developmental needs. Therefore, evaluation may cover the plan’s effectiveness, equity, efficiency and impact.

The Evaluation will be of two types

• Ex-ante Evaluation
• Ex-post Evaluation

Ex-ante evaluation is often referred to as appraisal. This involves analysing the likely results stemming from the implementation of the proposed plan. It is also used to consider alternative ways of achieving project objectives. An example of ex-ante evaluation techniques is cost-benefit analysis.

Ex-ante evaluation of a plan may involve

•    Measurement of levels of achievement of objectives 
•    Appraisal of evidence produced
•    Setting down findings in a logical framework

Ex-post evaluation is to ascertain whether the resources invested have produced or are producing the expected level of output and benefits and are reaching the intended target population. Ex-post evaluation is essentially a review of implemented projects over time and may involve:

•    Observation of consequences of the adopted plan
•    Comparison with predicted expected outcomes and
•    Identification of new problems arising.

The fix-post Evaluation will cover the following:

•    Have the Action Plan and Project Objectives been achieved?
•    Are the objectives still relevant?
•    Was the project completed in the time planned?
•    Was the project cost within the amount estimated? etc.

Monitoring/Evaluation Strategy

The Assembly has the overall responsibility of implementing projects and programmes of the District. However, a technical team, drawn from the Assembly and from among the personnel of the decentralised Departments present in the Districts will be put in place to monitor and evaluate the schedules of the Medium – Term Plan. The DPCU will be responsible for the preparation of monitoring and evaluation procedures and also for co-ordinating and collating the output of monitoring and co-ordination activities.

Techniques For Monitoring

The Assembly will adopt the following:

1. On the sport checks; and
2. Periodic implementation Reports.

Techniques For Evaluation

• The planning Balance Sheets
• The Goals Achievement Matrix
• Cost-Benefit Analysis

Reporting

An effective mechanism of reporting is necessary to keep the information channels open. Periodic, quarterly and monthly reports, depending on the type of project and programme, will be required from DPCU. Periodic report will be submitted to the District Assembly and funding agencies by the District Planning and Co-ordinating Unit. Monitoring reports will also be required from Assembly members on progress of projects in their electoral area.

Summary And Conclusion

In preparing the 4-Year Medium Term Development Plan for the Tano South Municipal, a careful overview of existing socio-economic situation, the potentials and constraints (human and material) of the District have been presented. The income and expenditure pattern has been examined.  

As a major input, a number of development interventions have been proposed for all the major sectors of the local economy with reference to the GPRS II. The successful implementation of the Medium Term Development Plan will go a long way to improve the living standard in the District. What is required is adequate funding, and total political will and community commitment, community mobilisation, co-ordinations and management of resources for the implementation of the proposed development projects.

With proper management and judicious utilisation of resources, the targets set in the 4-Year Medium-Term Development Plan (MTDP) under the Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS II) will be achieved by the year 2009.