Projections

It deals with future trends in various attributes and guides the achievement of public policies related to accelerating Socio Economic Development.  In the absence of other reliable data, projections for the medium term were limited to population, school attendance, employment and agricultural production.

Population Projections

Population projections were undertaken so as to estimate future demand for both social and technical infrastructure over the plan period. The projections were based on the 2000 Population and Housing Census and population estimates for 2006. Figures were undertaken for the total Municipality and also for the first 20 settlements in the Municipality using the exponential method of population projection. The Table below indicates the projected results for the base year over the plan period (2006-2009)

The result indicates that by 2006 four settlements, namely Berekum Jinijini, Senase and Kato were urban towns (settlements with population above 5000).  This represents an urban population of 60%. By 2009 the percentage of urban population for the Berekum District would be about 64 per cent. 

The population projection has the following implications:

• Majority of the inhabitants in the urban areas will lack amenities such as Sanitation, (including Proper Waste Management), Decent housing, Water, Electricity, etc.

•  There will be scarcity of other basic services like Waste disposal (both solid and liquid), transportation, (Tarring of Roads to Link Major Towns and District Capital), Access to electricity, Access Roads, Markets etc.

•  The non-farm agricultural sector will need to generate more jobs to absorb the people.

Projections For School-Going Age

The projections have been limited to the primary and Junior Secondary Schools.  This is due to the fact that, it would be very difficult to project for Senior Secondary Schools population, as such schools draw students from all over the country and not necessary from the Municipal alone. 

The projections have been based on the following assumption:

The proportion for the school-going age cohorts as determined from the Municipal Directorate of Education (2005/2006) will increase by 10% as a result of the massive investment in the Educational Sector by Central Government eg. HIPC Initiatives, the GET Fund, The School Feeding Programme, The Capitation Grant, anticipated support from Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs.), support from the District Assembly etc.This implies that a number of School Classrooms, Teachers, Teachers Quarters, Books and other facilities will have to be planned and provided to cater for the increased number of school children.

Employment Projections

Employment projections are essential for planning purposes as it provides a vivid picture of the need for job creation which can be weighted against planned programmes and projects.  This also shows the relative proportions of employment in the various sectors.

The Employment projections have been based on the indicators from the Core Welfare Indicators Questionnaire (CWIQ-2003), which gave an unemployment rate of 6.1% and underemployment rate of 21.8%.The following were adopted to arrive at the actual labour force for the Projection (2006):
Percentage Population in the active Labour Force     - 62.8%
Less Unemployment Rate                                              - 6.1% 
Less Provisional estimates for those in School and  
In Apprenticeship Trade                                                  - 5.0%
Actual/Total Labour Force                                          51.7% (53,758)
                                                
The following classifications of sectors have been adopted:

• Primary    -This comprises basically agriculture activities like farming (arable  & pastoral) and lumbering.

• Secondary- This comprises industrial activities mainly manufacturing & Food processing, Hair Dressing, Tailoring Seamstress
• Tertiary   -Include Wholesale and Retail trade, Banking, Business.

The Various Modules under the Youth Employment Programme viiz:

•  Youth In Non-Crop Agriculture,
•  Youth In Crop Agriculture,
• Youth In Sanitation & Waste Management,
• Youth In Non- Agriculture Trades and Vocations,
• Youth In agriculture Business and Marketing,
• Youth In Community Protection Unit;  Will be also adopted.

The labour force in secondary (industrial) sector will rise proportionately.  This can be attributed to planned programmes and the government priority areas in private sector Competitive to create and sustain jobs. The tertiary sector will also follow the same trend as the secondary sector with the boom in the telecommunication sector.

The unemployment rate which was 6.1% in 2003 is assumed to remain constant over the years because of high unemployment and underemployment rates compared to the National and Regional Averages. This will be reduced to about 3% at the end of the Plan period due to intended plan programmes in infrastructure development, modernized agriculture based on rural development and anticipated efficient performance of the private sector as envisaged in the Private Sector Competitive Pillar under the GPRS II, and other Government priority areas and the Presidents Special Initiatives which the District is taking advantage of. 

Also as enshrined in the development Focus of the Berekum Municipal Assembly, which will concentrate on collaborations with the Private Sector Competitive to create jobs and wealth for the people.
From the Table above, it can be seen that much efforts will be needed to provide the number of additional jobs to cater for the increasing number of new entrants in the labour market.

Production Projections

Agriculture is the main economic activity in the Berekum Municipal . Its contribution to food production, employment and income generation will continue to be immense in the plan period.  The present performance of agriculture, the problems and potentials identified for development have been used as the basis for projecting outputs/yields from 2006-2009. A total of six (6) major crops were used.

Also the District will take advantage of Youth Employment Programme with the various modules in Agriculture to create employment and increase production and improve yields.  It is anticipated that production and yields for Maize will reduce in 2007 because of Afian Flu which affected the Poultry Industry and for that matter market for maize products in 2006. However, Production and Yields for maize will increase in 2008 in view of measures put in place by the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MOFA) at the National level and the District Directorate of MOFA at the Municipal level. 

The Municipal Assembly in collaboration with the District Directorate will continue to support the National exercise to sustain maize farming and the Poultry Industry.

Revenue Projections

Analysis of the Municipal financial statement for the past five years (2001 - 2005) served as the basis for revenue projections for the plan period.  Actual revenue from 2002 – 2005 grew by an average of about 6%. It is therefore projected that Internally Generated Revenue/Fund (IGF), in the foreseeable years will grow by an average rate of 10% from 2006 – 2009. Projections for grants and other external sources of revenue or inflows can be seen below under the Projected/Exogenous Revenue for Medium Term Development Plan 2006-2009 below.

Development Prosepects For Government Priority Areas
Prospect For Private Sector Competitive

Stimulation of production and productivity to create jobs to increase the income levels of the people is a priority area under the GPRS II for the Berekum Municipal Assembly. This is in line with the Development Focus of the Municipality Assembly during the plan period.  As a result the Assembly would want to increase the real income by 10% by the end of the Plan Period 2006-2009.  

Efforts will be put in place to maximize opportunities for the creation of productive employment to reduce the current unemployment levels of 6.1% to about 3.0% by the end of 2009. Emphasis will be placed on sustaining and establishing small-scale industries based on the opportunities existing in the District.

Measures will be put in place to improve access to market for selling of both Agric and Industrial products, and reduce the cost of doing business in the Municipality. Routine maintenance and construction of Feeder Roads will continue in line with the priorities and aspirations of the people to open up the district for opportunities in Agricultural and Industrial sectors in collaboration with Department of Feeder Roads which is existing in the Municipality.   A Survey on Business Climate within the district will be initiated to identify potentials in critical investment areas to source support from the private sector for investment.   

Prospects For Human Resource Development

Government commitment to the eight (8) pillars in the Millennium Development Goals will be utilized to improve the quality of Human Resource Development within the plan period.  Other donor funded programmes such as the GTZ, (RUTIPP), KfW (Towns V Projects),  World Bank, Agence Francaise de Developpement (AFD) and any other source of Funds or donor Programme would be sourced to enhance Rural and Urban Infrastructure Development.

The District Assembly will step up activities to increase domestic resource mobilization through increase in District Assembly internally Generated Fund, Human Resources mobilization, Communal Labour, citizens both at home and abroad to supplement government efforts to improve infrastructure in the Municipality.

The following will be pursued vigorously under infrastructure Development Priority Areas in line with the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and aspirations of the people.

• Up-grading existing Berekum Central Market,

• Construction of Boreholes with funds from the Community Water and Sanitation, beneficiary Communities and Municipal Assembly,

• Expansion of Existing Water Systems,

• Promotion construction of Domestic and Public Latrines (both Urban and Rural)

• Up grading of urban infrastructure facilities eg. Lorry Parks, Markets, Abattoir, etc.

•  Tarring of roads to link district capital to major towns,

• Provision of Access Roads/Streets in major towns in the District.

• Up – Grading and Construction of Selected Health Infrastructure.

Following the successful implementation of Rural Enterprises Project, the Municipal Assembly will use it wealth of experience obtained in the Programme to provide technical services in training in financial and business management practices for the teeming youth in the District to improve productivity.  This will also lead to increase in jobs as existing ones will be maintained and new ones are developed to attract the youth.

Prospects For Promotion Of Urban Towns And Area Council Capitals

The goal of the District with regards to promotion of Sub-District structures is to enhance spatial equity and economic efficiency in productive activities in line with Government policy on decentralization.  The Municipal Assembly therefore aims at addressing problems relating to spatial distribution of development activities, population distribution and the infrastructure facilities.

Some parts of the Municipality are deprived and not well integrated like the rest of the Municipal as depicted in the Poverty Profiling and Mapping (Pro- Poor) Report.  The Sub-District capitals would therefore be strengthened to serve as service centers with socio-economic infrastructure to serve these areas and stimulate economic activities, construction of Small Town Pipe Systems (mechanized Boreholes) will be promoted at all Sub-District capitals by 2009. 

Also all services and facilities according to the priorities of the councils will be up-graded to befit their status to stimulate growth and development in their areas of influence. Issues of Human capital Development for elected, appointed and staff of sub-district level will be pursued to sustain development at the grassroots level.

The Operational/Functional Area Of Berekum Township

There is therefore the need to improve urban and municipal infrastructure to befit the new anticipated role to be played by Berekum Township to be able to serve its environs and the hinterland. The extent of operational Area of Berekum Township can be seen below:   

Environmental And Human Settlement Pattern

The environmental development of the Municipal aims at halting activities and circumstances which cause degradation of both the natural and built up environment and thus enhance sustainable development and also reduction in diseases particularly incidence of malaria and typhoid fever. Efforts will be made to sustain achievements under bush fire control and land acquisition procedure to make land readily available for investment.

Prospect For Good Governance

Efficient Financial Management and procurement practices will be adhered to all transactions to be initiated by the District Assembly. Projection Levels for major revenue in terms of Rates, Fees/Fines, Licenses, Land, Rents and Misc. will be increased by 100%. Valuation of Assets and Properties will be undertaken for the District Assembly to derive the appropriate revenue to undertake more development projects during the plan period. 

Discussions will be held with Traditional authorities to establish more market trading days to expand the local economy. Efforts will be put in place to establish proper accounting practices and transparency in public accounting system to obtain value for money during the plan period. Improved consultations will be sought with the private sector and Civil Society Organizations, Sub-District Structures on implementation of policies and programmes.   The District Assembly will continue to peruse its agenda of Public Private Partnership (PPP) to seek partnership for growth and development.